Heading into last Tuesday's contest with Coastal Carolina, the Mountaineers had a mini-bye to reflect on a near catastrophe in Monroe as they looked to right the ship at home. The black and gold faithful certainly did their part, showing up 34,000 strong on a Tuesday night and showing that despite some disappointing results, they remain the strongest fan base in the Sun Belt without a particularly close second.
Unfortunately, the team was plagued by many of the same issues on the field. An early 14-0 hole and trouble defending the deep ball for the second straight week put them on their heels early and unlike against ULM, there would be no late magic this time around. In a near exact role reversal of the 30-27 App victory in 2021, the Chants kicked a chip shot field goal into the South end zone as time expired to seal a 27-24 victory.
Now at 3-3 overall and 1-1 in conference play, the black and gold head to Norfolk after an 11-day layoff. Awaiting them is an ODU team coming off a bye and to keep any realistic hopes alive of contending in the Sun Belt East, the Mountaineers must return home with a victory.
Is this team really close or far away?
One of the truly confounding aspects of the first half of the 2023 season for App State is that they can look so close and so far from the championship teams of years past at the same time. The final minutes of the losses to Wyoming and Coastal illustrate this as well as anything.
In Laramie, despite struggling in the red zone against a very good Wyoming defense, they kept the Cowboys at an arm's length all game. When the fourth quarter rolled around, they put together a grinding, nine and a half minute drive to set up a field goal that would have all but sealed the victory but instead got blocked and went for a touchdown the other way.
Against Coastal, after absorbing an early punch in the mouth from the Chants and getting down by two touchdowns before their uniforms were dirty, the Apps tightened up on defense and clawed their way back. Tied at 24 late in the fourth quarter, Joey Aguilar hit Milan Tucker who streaked down the sideline for 69 yards and ever so briefly put the Mountaineers in the driver's seat before the ball was punched out to set up a winning drive for the visitors.
That is two jarring blows in three games that turned potential game winning plays into the deciding swings in gut-wrenching defeats. One missed assignment in field goal protection, one bounce of a ball heading out of bounds and this struggling 3-3 team is sitting at 5-1.
At the same time, it is hard to look at the body of work and argue objectively that 3-3 is an unfair record. The Apps were quite unlucky to lose at Wyoming but were equally fortunate to leave Monroe victorious. While you had to admire their spirit in battling back against Coastal, no team is going to win many games when allowing 569 yards without forcing a turnover.
As Bill Parcells was fond of saying, "you are what your records says you are." It has been a wild ride to get there but right now, this is a .500 football team. They have had an opportunity to win every game they have played but too often, the Apps have been unable to come up with the big play late in the game that turns the tide in their favor. If that does not change in the second half of the season, the roller coaster might continue.
Joey Aguilar's grip on the starting job looks as firm as ever
For as many questions as there are about this team, any that were lingering about the quarterback position sure seem to have been answered. When Ryan Burger first got back to practice, Joey Aguilar had struggled with turnovers the prior two games and it was easy to wonder whether the QB1 coming out of fall camp may work his way back into the top spot.
Despite a disappointing result last week, Joey played his best game as a Mountaineer. He was poised in the pocket, made good decisions and felt the pressure when it was applied. The ball was put right where it needed to be all night and were it not for numerous drive killing drops, his completion percentage would have been closer to 70% than the 58% he finished with.
At the end of the night, he finished with 305 passing yards and two touchdowns without committing a turnover or taking a sack. Whether it was coaching from Frank Ponce, hearing footsteps behind him on the depth chart or a combination of both, Aguilar put his best foot forward when he needed to.
Even considering a midseason change under center is the last thing that most coaches want to do. With no margin for error on Saturday, the Mountaineers will need continued confident play at the quarterback position.
Who are we going to see in Norfolk on Saturday?
This question may apply to both sides but you would be hard pressed to find a team more difficult to figure out than Old Dominion. Also sitting at 3-3, the Monarchs are 2-1 in conference and also 2-1 on their home field.
Included in that is a quality win at home over a resurgent Louisiana team and a narrow 27-24 defeat at home to Wake Forest. They also gave Marshall all they wanted in Huntington before eventually falling 41-35.
Interestingly enough, it is actually two of their wins that seem most perplexing. In a game where they turned the ball over five times, ODU barely escaped with a 10-9 win over Texas A&M Commerce, a 1-win team out of the Southland Conference. Their last time out, they sludged their way to a 17-13 win at Southern Miss, another 1-win team that has allowed 236 points to their other five FBS opponents.
The Monarchs, on paper, do not appear to pose much of a threat on offense. However, ULM has scored less than 12 points per game in their four FBS contests aside from a 40-point outburst against the Mountaineers. Ultimately, the question may be which Mountaineer defense will we see on Saturday?
If the version that held UNC to 27 points in regulation, then smothered ECU and Wyoming shows up in Norfolk then the Apps should be in business. Offensively, the Mountaineers have moved the ball in every game this season and scored over 40 points on three occasions.
On the other hand, if they struggle out of the gates and fall victim to the pass over the top, the Monarchs are more than capable of finding a rhythm. Just ask the Cajuns, who got burned for four touchdown of over 30 yards in their week two loss.
More specifically, the Mountaineer secondary has to be sharp. Breakdowns in communication have killed them in recent weeks and against a team that is not known for their offensive prowess, they must keep the ball in front of them and make ODU sustain drives to score.
On the other side of the ball, the wide receiver room had been a strength all season until last week. Key drops on third and fourth downs were an issue all night, before a late fumble ended their hopes of a comeback. A bounce back performance from this group will be needed as the black and gold looks to apply pressure on the road.
With Homecoming on the horizon in a contest where the Apps will be heavily favored, a divisional road win against a team above them in the standings could be just what they need to get back on track. If they lose another game in the East, the questions will continue to mount so how this team shows up on Saturday may be the tipping point that determines the direction of the second half.