Searching for answers, the Apps make a pivotal trip to Greenville

Photo: AgualloStudios.com

Last Saturday was a night to forget for everyone associated with App State football. The trip to Clemson was seemingly over before it began as the Mountaineers suffered a staggeringly one-sided defeat. After scoring touchdowns on their first eight drives, the Tigers eased off the gas and cruised to a 66-20 victory in Death Valley.

The mistakes were numerous but no group suffered more than the Mountaineers' secondary, who were caught flat-footed and out of position as Cade Klubnik played pitch and catch with little resistance.

While a 1-1 record is what most would have expected, the manner of defeat was jarring and the Apps have no time to sulk. Another tough road trip is on deck this weekend as the black and gold travel to Greenville to face in-state rivals East Carolina, who are 2-0 after a road win at Old Dominion in week two.

It is hard to call a mid-September nonconference game "must win" but it sure feels like the Mountaineers badly need a a bounce back performance. Having already matched their win total from a year ago, the Pirates enter with confidence and having seen the tape from Clemson, first year offensive coordinator John David Baker figures to be aggressive.

Starting fast

On the road in what should be a rowdy environment at Dowdy-Ficklen with close to 50,000 fans expected, the Apps cannot afford another slow start. Expect the Pirates to dial up some deep balls early to test the discipline and confidence of the Mountaineers' secondary.

If the defense can keep the ECU offense and crowd at bay at the onset, that should allow them to settle in to the game. However, if the Pirates hit a big one early, the stadium will be rocking and the Apps will have to avoid reliving last week's nightmare.

On the other side of the ball, some early dropped passes killed drives at Clemson and put a shellshocked defense back on the field with little time to compose themselves. As coach Clark said in his weekly presser, the offense has got to help the defense this week. Getting early first downs would also go a long way towards rebuilding team confidence.

Turning over a new leaf

In the opening weeks of the season, East Carolina has managed to win despite turning the ball over 10 times in two games. Jake Garcia's seven interceptions are the primary culprit, as the gunslinging quarterback has made some poor decisions with the ball. Otherwise, the Pirates may have scored north of 60 on Norfolk State and won comfortably at ODU.

For the Mountaineers, Scot Sloan's group notched 1.7 takeaways per game in 2023, good for 27th in FBS football. In 2024, the defense has yet to force a turnover, with the lone takeaway of the first two weeks coming on a fumbled punt at Clemson after the outcome had long since been decided.

If the Apps are unable to capitalize on what has been the Pirates' most glaring weakness, they will have a tall task ahead of them on Saturday. That will start up front with the pass rush, where sophomore Nate Johnson has not been a factor in the first two weeks after a stellar freshman campaign.

Strong safety Jordan Favors has also been quiet in the early going after a breakout season in 2023 where he had four interceptions and eight pass break-ups, playing his best football down the stretch. Thus far, that play has not carried over and the Mountaineer safety group as a whole has struggled. Syracuse transfer Myles Farmer has seen limited snaps at the free safety position as he battles some nagging injuries and health permitting, he should have the opportunity to take on a larger role in the secondary.

Facing an ECU offense that plays fast and is averaging 486 yards per game, winning the turnover battle seems like a requirement for the Mountaineers to come out on top.

Ground the ship

Another key to containing the up-tempo Pirates' attack that ran over 90 plays last week at Old Dominion is to keep the ball out of their hands. That starts on the ground, where the Mountaineers have been uncharacteristically inefficient in their first two games.

The only App State player to hit a run over 25 yards is wide receiver Makai Jackson, who housed a 47-yard end around against ETSU. That has to change on Saturday for the Apps to keep their defense fresh and take some pressure off Joey Aguilar, who has been in too many obvious passing situations and is completing just 51% of his attempts.

One potential development from Saturday's game is the performance of Anderson Castle, who gained 80 yards including a touchdown on seven carries at Clemson. His physical, downhill runs were one of the only bright spots for the Mountaineers and with Kanye Roberts off to a sluggish start, the distribution of carries will be something to watch.

The App State offense is no secret and as they have for years, Frank Ponce and the Mountaineers will want to establish the run by relying heavily on the outside zone stretch, opening up passing lanes for Joey to distribute the ball through the air. If ECU is able to bottle up the run without bringing an extra defender into the box, the Apps will be forced to the air and risk letting the Pirates control the clock.

Prediction

The Mountaineers have been difficult to read in the first two weeks. Against an overmatched opponent in ETSU, the Apps were not as dominant as they could have been but took over the game when they needed to and were never really threatened.

However, between an explosive run play that kept the Bucs in the game at halftime, an inability to impose their own run game and some downfield opportunities allowed by the secondary, there were warning signs. While ETSU did not have the personnel to exploit every miscue, Clemson did and they executed ruthlessly.

Now, the Apps must be prepared for a full four quarter game against a peer opponent in what will likely be the most hostile environment they see the rest of the season. The Pirates have a much different look than they did a year ago and they will be motivated to snap their skid against an in-state rival.

Whether last week's embarrassment galvanizes or deflates the Mountaineers will be apparent early on. If they come out tentative, the Pirates could pounce and get their crowd behind them but with a steady start, the Apps have the talent and experience to win on the road and get their season back on track. I expect a spirited effort from the black and gold but there are just too many unknowns to feel confident in defeating a vastly improved East Carolina team.

East Carolina 31, App State 27