Keys and Prediction: ETSU

Photo: Jonathan Aguallo / AgualloStudios.com

With opening week finally upon us, the 2024 Mountaineers are just days away from taking the field with lofty expectations for the upcoming campaign. The Apps are preseason favorites in the highly competitive Sun Belt East, due in large part to the amount of proven talent returning from last year's 9-win squad.

In fact, the black and gold return 68% of their production from a year ago, which ranks 33rd of 134 FBS programs. For the second straight season, they will open up against a Tre Lamb led opponent when old SoCon foes ETSU visit Kidd Brewer Stadium. Lamb is in his first season with the Bucs after spending the last four at Gardner-Webb.

Below are three keys to the game on Saturday and my stab at a score prediction:

New faces in the trenches

Headlined by Sun Belt preseason player of the year Joey Aguilar at quarterback, the Mountaineers' offense is loaded with experienced talent at the skill positions. He will be flanked by four of his top five receiving targets from 2023 and a deep running back room.

Despite the transfer of Nate Noel to Missouri, the backfield rotation is rock solid. Kanye Roberts (696 yards, 5.7 YPC) figures to lead the way after posting a team high seven rushing touchdowns a year ago. He will be joined by veterans Anderson Castle, Maquel Haywood and Ahmani Marshall, all of whom are reportedly back to full strength after some battling lingering injuries last season.

Where things are less clear is on the offensive line, as the Apps will be breaking in four new starters after the graduations of Isaiah Helms, Bucky Williams and Damion Daley. The shocking passing of Jack Murphy this offseason was a tragedy that had a profound impact on the entire App State program. While the on-field impact feels trivial, it does also leave a void at tackle where Murphy was an all-conference performer.

A combination of returning contributors (Markell Samuel, Griffin Scroggs, Thornton Gentry) and additions from the transfer portal (Jack Hollifield, Garner Langlo, Thomas Shrader, Luke Burgess) will make up the 2024 offensive line rotation, with several guys who can play across the line. On paper, it is a group with depth, college experience and size but how this group gels will likely determine the ceiling for an offense with an abundance of playmakers.

A star is born

In October of last year, the Apps had a disappointing 3-4 record and had lost consecutive conference games due in large part to defensive lapses. A change was needed and the Mountaineer coaching staff took drastic action by changing their base defense to a 'Star' package, bringing a hybrid safety/linebacker into the rotation to get more speed on the field.

To say the move paid off would be an understatement, as the team won six of their last seven contests including a trip to the Sun Belt title game and a victory over 10-win Miami (OH) in the Cure Bowl. With a full offseason to add some wrinkles and allow the players to further familiarize themselves with the formation, the question will be whether they can take the next step and return to the dominance of prior App State defenses.

NC A&T transfer Avarion Cole is set to man the Star position with quality depth behind him in returner Jalik Thomas. Another key development is a healthy nose tackle rotation, as Markus Clark is back in action, along with NC State transfer Nick Campbell and likely starter Joshua Donald, a Troy transfer.

The nose rotation will allow Santana Hopper to return to his natural defensive end position as part of what will likely be five players who see significant reps on the edge. With Nate Johnson back at outside linebacker after a superb freshman season (43 tackles, 7.5 sacks) and an experienced secondary, the pieces appear to be in place.

The weight of expectations

Coming off a subpar 6-6 campaign in 2022 with uncertainty at the quarterback position, the Mountaineers were largely overlooked heading in to last season. Things have changed significantly since then after a red-hot finish to the season and Joey Aguilar back in the fold on the heels of a record-setting debut season in Boone.

On paper, the hype is warranted. This is a talented team who stuck together through adversity in 2023, finally got a taste of success and return a strong core that has been supplemented greatly in the transfer portal. Combine that with the continuity that comes with both coordinators returning and you have the makings of a championship team.... on paper.

Along with some tough games on the schedule with trips to Clemson, Marshall and Coastal along with visits from G5 contenders JMU and Liberty, managing the external expectations will be a new challenge for many of the 2024 Mountaineers.

This is a program that is accustomed to getting every team in the Sun Belt's best shot but it has been a few years since the Apps have played the role of the conference favorite. Embracing the pressure and learning to finish games, which has been a struggle at times, may determine whether this team can get over the hump and live up to their potential.

Week 1 Prediction

There will be no shortage of familiarity when ETSU comes to town. Former App offensive linemen Luke Smith and Seth Williams will line up for the Bucs, while Tre Lamb brought 24 players with him from the Gardner-Webb team that visited The Rock to open the 2023 campaign.

Although the Mountaineers pulled away for a 45-24 victory in Joey Aguilar's coming out party, it was in comeback fashion as they trailed late into the third quarter on their home field. Lamb is a great offensive mind and had the Apps off balance for much of the game. His defensive coordinator, Josh Reardon, also came with him from Gardner-Webb and has seen what the Apps can do offensively.

However, the Apps have enjoyed even greater continuity from a year ago and simply have a much deeper and more talented roster. Expect the Bucs to open the playbook and force Scot Sloan and the Mountaineer defense to adjust. Jaylen King, one of the aforementioned G-W transfers, is a playmaker at the quarterback position that will have to be accounted for as a passer and a rusher, particularly in the red zone.

As with any season opener, some early rust is to be expected along with some butterflies for the newcomers. The Mountaineers can ill afford to look past ETSU but with the talent level and lofty goals for this group, they should be too much for the Bucs to contain as they kick off the season with a comfortable victory.

App State 42, ETSU 14