In a story that has seemingly been played on repeat this season, the Mountaineers lost a one score game on Saturday after some costly late mistakes. This time, it was Old Dominion who took advantage with a game winning, 69-yard touchdown drive that left the Apps just 43 seconds to attempt an answer.
To their credit, they covered 59 yards in their limited time and had two looks at the end zone but were ultimately unable to come up with the equalizer. Now sitting at 3-4 overall, 1-2 in the Sun Belt and at the bottom of the East division, the season outlook has changed dramatically in the last two weeks as bowl eligibility now seems like an uphill climb, much less competing for a championship.
On deck is a return to The Rock for Homecoming to face a 1-6 Southern Miss team who was pummeled 55-3 by South Alabama in their last outing. While the Mountaineers opened as 17-point favorites, the Golden Eagles are coming off a bye week, making it three times in the last four games that the Apps will face a team with an extra week of preparation.
Bye weeks, tough travel schedules over the last month and anything else aside, it should not matter. App State is the better team top to bottom, will be playing on their home field in front of another sellout crowd and they have to get off the mat.
The Mountaineers need their Sandman
One question that has been asked throughout the first half of the season is a simple one: what is the identity of this team? For the better part of two decades, that has been an easy question to answer. App State is a physical running team that will stretch zone you to death, spread the field with three or four receivers and hit the big play over the top after the defense has sold out to stop the run.
That brand of offense allowed the Mountaineers to keep the defense fresh, wear down their opponents and force them to play from behind. Such complimentary football allows the defense to keep the ball in front of them and force the opposition to put together patient drives to get back in the game.
In 2023, the identity of this team has shown itself on several occasions now. Unfortunately, it is not the identity that anyone in the building wants. It has nothing to do with scheme, style of play or personnel. Through seven games, this is a team that cannot finish.
That is not intended to be harsh but right now, it is a reality. There are a lot of new faces on the field, particularly on the defensive side of the ball, and this team has not learned how to win together. When the game is in the balance, they do not have a closer.
The Mountaineers have lost four games this season. They held a fourth quarter lead in three of those games, twice inside the final two minutes. The only loss where they did not lead in the final frame was Coastal, which was tied with under two minutes to play when the Apps drove deep into Chants territory before a costly fumble led to a walk-off defeat.
Whether it is getting two tough yards when they need it, coming up with a clutch fourth down stop or forcing a game-changing turnover, the go-to guy with the game on the line has not yet emerged.
Fix one problem, another arises
In what has to be supremely frustrating for the coaches and players, it has seemed to be a different issue every week. While Joey Aguilar was still getting his sea legs as the starting quarterback, some sloppy turnovers were costly in the loss at Wyoming and made the ULM game far more interesting than it needed to be.
Against ULM and in the home loss to Coastal, the Apps dug themselves in an early 14-0 hole and were torched in the secondary by the deep ball. In their most recent defeat, each of those issues seemed to have been addressed.
It was the Mountaineers who grabbed an early 7-0 lead, kept the ODU receivers in front of them and played turnover free football. Under center, Joey backed up his stellar performance against Coastal with an equally impressive showing in Norfolk. In his last two games, Aguilar has passed for 557 yards, four touchdowns, no interceptions and a rushing score to boot.
However, the end result was the same. This time, there were a few key plays in the fourth quarter that led to the final result. What will likely be remembered most is the fourth and 10 conversion on the Monarchs final drive but a more mundane play just minutes before may have been even more costly.
After picking up nine yards on first down, App State was in the driver's seat with a 1-point lead and under four minutes to play. ODU was forced to take a timeout and the Mountaineers had two chances to get one yard and put the game on ice.
They elected to go for a run pass option, fumbled at the mesh point and took an unforced loss of five yards. That led to a punt, setting up ODU with more than enough time to drive down the field with two timeouts in their pocket.
To this point, that has been the season in a nutshell. Victory was right there and in the biggest moment, the team just cannot seem to get out of their own way.
The kids are alright
For all the disappointment of the first two months of the season, it has not been without its bright spots. In addition to Joey Aguilar providing some excellent play at quarterback, the Mountaineers have had several young players step up and play big roles.
Defensively, that starts with true freshman Nate Johnson. Lining up as a hybrid outside linebacker and defensive end, he has racked up 26 total tackles, six tackles for loss, five sacks, three quarterback hurries and a pass break-up.
Johnson was a force on Saturday, notching six tackles, two sacks and disrupting the line of scrimmage all night. With another year of strength and conditioning, he has all the tools to continue developing and be a special player for a long time to come.
Redshirt freshman Santana Hopper, a decorated recruit in the 2022 class out of Shelby, made the move from defensive end to tackle and has flashed some serious potential as well. He also had the best night of his young career against ODU with four tackles and 1.5 sacks.
Hopper doesn't have the typical 300+ pound frame of a nose tackle but he is explosive and powerful, physically cut from the same cloth as former App great MyQuon Stout.
Fellow redshirt freshman Kanye Roberts has also put his skills on display in recent weeks. Even before the injury to Nate Noel, he had earned his way into the rotation and shown incredible vision and elusiveness in the open field.
When Noel went down early against Coastal, it was a group effort in the backfield but he carried the load in Norfolk and did not disappoint. Though he was kept out of the end zone, he did eclipse the century mark, rushing for 109 yards on 26 carries.
Nate is expected to return this weekend and assuming he is at full strength, he will be the lead back but Roberts will continue to play a big role in the offense going forward. Averaging just under five yards a carry and improving in pass protection, he has earned his coaches' trust and proven too valuable to not get his touches.