Although App State is unlikely to ever match the insanity of the opening month of the 2022 football season, they sure seem determined to try. Aside from a sluggish but ultimately pedestrian opening win over Gardner-Webb, the 2023 campaign has had very few dull moments.
A pair of heartbreaking losses, a double-OT thriller in Chapel Hill and a remarkably unlikely loss at Wyoming in a game the Mountaineers thoroughly dominated, bookended a home victory over East Carolina in their first visit to the High Country since 1979. Regardless of ECU's struggles, a win over the Pirates is always significant, particularly with a record crowd as the backdrop.
The Apps now sit at 2-2, by no means a shocking record given the schedule, although nobody could have predicted how they would get there. A quarterback battle that lasted until the final week of fall camp, a quarterback injury that thrust Joey Aguilar to the forefront and a new-look defense have a provided a lot of highs and lows in the first four weeks.
Now, with the Mountaineers set for a trip to Monroe to kick off the Sun Belt stretch, it seems we have as many questions as answers about the 2023 squad. So, at this point, what do we know?
Nate Noel is BACK
After leading the Sun Belt in rushing and earning first team all-conference honors in 2021, Nate was hampered by injuries a year ago and rushed for just 604 yards. Heading into this season, as his coach loves to remind him, he was not on any preseason all-conference lists even as an honorable mention.
Four games in, he leads the nation with 131.4 rushing yards per game and a healthy 5.1 yards per carry average. Any questions about his health or durability have been answered, with Noel averaging over 25 carries per contest. The muscle he added in the offseason is showing and he is running with great power to go with the speed he has had his entire career.
With a quarterback room that is talented but very short on Division I experience, the Mountaineers will need to lean on the run game as they navigate the conference slate.
About the only question is whether Kanye Roberts or Maquel Haywood will settle into the full-time complementary back to lighten his load a bit. Nate has proven he can be the bell cow but he is on pace for 300+ carries, which is a hefty ask especially with the meat grinder that is the last month of the Apps' schedule.
The retooled defense looks ahead of schedule
It would be easy to look at the high-level statistics and say that the Mountaineers' defense has not improved or even regressed in 2023, given that the team allowed 26.8 points per game in 2022 compared to 28.5 through four games this season. However, you'd be hard pressed to find anyone that has watched the team who would agree. This is an instance where statistics need context.
In the last two games, ECU and Wyoming scored six total touchdowns but three of those came when the defense was not on the field. A pick six, fumble returned for a touchdown and blocked field goal returned for another score have inflated the team's statistical scoring defense.
After allowing 63 points to North Carolina in Boone last season, the Apps limited Drake Maye & Co. to 27 points in regulation this time around. They are on pace for 36 sacks after notching 28 a year ago and with six interceptions, they are just one shy of their 2022 season total.
Bringing Scot Sloan back to Boone and making some key additions in the transfer portal has the black and gold defense trending in the right direction despite half of the line-up being first year starters. After smothering ECU and Wyoming the last two weeks, the Mountaineers need to continue their momentum on that side of the ball when they head to Monroe.
Limiting splash plays and finishing drives may determine their fate
For all the improvements in several key areas, the Apps sit at 2-2 through four games, the same as a year ago. Much of the reason this team is not 3-1 or even 4-0 comes down to allowing big, momentum-shifting plays and struggling in the red zone.
After attempting 12 field goals in the 2022 season, Michael Hughes has 11 field goal attempts through four games. The Mountaineers are converting 50% of their red zone trips into touchdowns, which is down from 65% a year ago.
Against Gardner-Webb and ECU, the Apps survived a 41-yard touchdown pass, a pick six and a fumble returned for a score, pulling away late in both contests. However, against stronger teams allowing for a smaller margin of error, they were not so fortunate.
In many ways, this team seems both so close and so far away from the App State championship teams of past years. One defensive stop short in Chapel Hill, one missed run fit at Wyoming and what could have been an inspiring start now seems tenuous.
Nothing encapsulated this better than the fourth quarter at Wyoming. The Mountaineers put together a nine and a half minute drive, grinding away at the Cowboys defense and putting themselves in a position to ice the game. One more first down and the black and gold could have left town victorious without their defense having to step foot on the field.
It was 95% of a vintage, game-sealing App State drive that the Mountaineers just couldn't quite finish. Instead, they had to settle for a field goal attempt, leaving a tiny window open that the Cowboys stormed through to pull out a stunning victory despite being thoroughly outplayed for 58 minutes.
Call it a fluke, call it bad luck but the simple fact is that the Apps had every opportunity to win and just couldn't finish the job. Many of the big pieces seem to be in place but finding the ability to get across the finish line may ultimately determine how successful these 2023 Mountaineers can be.
In addition to determining the outcome of this season, the future of the program could be impacted as well. It's no secret to anyone, least of call Coach Clark himself, that this is a vital season for him. If the end result does not improve from last year's disappointing 6-6 season, there will be a lot of pressure on Doug Gillin to reevaluate the program, starting at the top.
With a roster that is talented but inexperienced in some key spots, it could mean the difference between a team that enters 2024 with very high expectations and one undergoing a significant overhaul. There have been some promising signs and the Apps have a golden opportunity to right the ship but the climb back up the mountain starts with finishing the job in Monroe tomorrow.