With fourteen minutes to play in their Homecoming contest against Southern Miss, all seemed lost for the Mountaineers. Trailing by 10 points on their home field against a (then) one-win Golden Eagles team, a 3-5 record looked inevitable and even the most loyal of the black and gold faithful could have been forgiven for wondering if another win was on the schedule.
From there, the Apps scored the last 20 points of the game to escape the USM upset bid, cruised past Marshall was surprising ease and have outscored their opposition 51-9 in the last 74 minutes of game time.
After allowing a staggering 502 yards of offense through three quarters against Southern Miss, the App State defense has surrendered just 338 yards in the last five quarters. Marshall mustered just 252 total yards and never truly threatened to get back in the game after halftime.
It was easily the most complete performance of the year for the Mountaineers and the timing could not be better, with road trips to Georgia State and James Madison on deck. The momentum will truly be put to the test as the Apps look to turn their season around.
Coming together at the right time, quality of competition or a bit of both?
Regardless of opponent, the Mountaineers have been on an impressive run. Wins are never guaranteed and even teams near the bottom of the standings are capable of competing on any given week.
However, there is some understandable skepticism given that Marshall and Southern Miss have just two conference wins between them. While the last two weeks do not make the Apps title favorites by any means, I wouldn't be too quick to totally discount the progress.
Scot Sloan and the defensive staff made an in-season adjustment unlike any I can recall in recent history, going away from the base 3-4 alignment that has been a staple in Boone for the last decade in favor of a 'Star' package.
Being thin at the linebacker position, this variation of a 3-3-5 has gotten an extra defensive back on the field and made the defense faster as a unit. Caden Sullivan moved from his outside linebacker spot to playing on the inside and EJ Jackson has thrived in a larger role as the nickel, playing as a safety and linebacker hybrid of sorts.
There were some serious growing pains against Southern Miss but the changes now appear to be paying dividends. Just how far they have come will truly be put to the test on Saturday against Georgia State.
For all the injuries and struggles that Marshall and Southern Miss have dealt with, one thing they both have is an excellent lead back. Frank Gore Jr. and Rasheen Ali are two of the best in the conference and it gets no easier against Marcus Carroll and the Panthers.
Carroll is second in the Sun Belt in rushing yards (1,093) and touchdowns (12), with quarterback Darren Grainger also in the top ten of both categories. In addition, GSU has a much stronger offensive line than the last two opponents so if the new-look defense holds up against the Panthers' ground attack, there will be no questioning the results.
The Mountaineers need the all-conference caliber quarterback play to continue
Coming into the 2023 campaign, far and away the biggest question about the App State offense was how they would deal with the loss of Chase Brice. When Ryan Burger broke his finger before he even broke a sweat against Gardner-Webb, those concerns grew a bit larger.
It would have been hard to imagine the Mountaineers getting better play at the quarterback position than Joey Aguilar has provided the last nine games. He currently leads the Sun Belt with 23 touchdown passes and is fourth in both passing yards (2,402) and passer rating (156.5).
He had some early growing pains as he adjusted to Division I football, committing a few costly turnovers along the way but he has since settled in and then some. He is making quick decisions, taking care of the ball and making plays with his legs when he needs to.
Over the last month, Joey's play has been as good as anyone in the conference and maybe the country. In his last four games, Aguilar has passed for 1,177 yards, 11 touchdowns and just one interception.
The team has needed every bit of it, as the Apps have been opening up the run game with the pass in recent weeks. A departure from the Mountaineers' standard run-first approach, it has been out of necessity and Joey has certainly been up to the task.
Facing a Georgia State defense that is fourth in the conference in run defense but dead last in defending the pass, App State's offensive success will likely once again rely heavily on the right arm of Aguilar. After that, a vaunted JMU defense awaits that allows just 59 yards per game on the ground but just over 265 per game through the air.
Of Joey's impressive traits, what stands out more than anything is his ability to spread the ball around and not allow the defense to key on any one target. Six different App State receivers have more than 200 receiving yards and nine have caught a touchdown pass.
As the identity of the Appalachian offense has come into focus and the coaching staff's trust in their quarterback has grown, they will need to lean into their strengths with the toughest stretch of the schedule ahead. Already beginning to make a name for himself, Aguilar has the opportunity to put himself in the conversation among the Sun Belt's best if he can vault his team back into contention on Saturday.